electoral violence risk assessment in Nigeria.
The agency suggested possible escalation of electoral violence before
the 2019 general elections.
The outcome of the U.S. agency's research findings equally identified
Rivers, Kano, Kaduna and Ekiti states, among others, with high risk of
political violence in Nigeria.
The research scope, which covered between March and April 2018, was
conducted in eight states, including Kano, Kaduna, Ekiti, Adamawa,
Plateau, Anambra, Lagos and Rivers states.
A fellow of USIP, Mr. Aly Verjee, who presented the abridge report of
the research findings in Kano, said change in the narrative of
insecurity in the country, farmers/herdsmen dispute, communal and
ethnic crisis presently frustrating the fragile peace, are capable of
preventing smooth conduct of elections in 2019.
Verjee, in a paper titled, "Nigeria's 2019 elections: Change,
Continuity and the Risk to Peace, Summary of Key Findings, "said the
spade of political instability and internal crisis, especially in the
ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), could worsen the enduring
democratic system before the elections.
He said the credibility doubt against the Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC) to deliver high expectations when compared
to the relative improved performance in 2015 general elections might
spark needless violence by the electorate.
Guardian quoted him as saying: "The first ever peaceful transition of
power in 2015 raised expectations for the government performance. Many
feel their hopes have not been met.
"With this disappointment, we gathered there may be general
voter-apathy, particularly from the stronghold of the ruling party and
high turn-out in the opposition areas.
"The implications for electoral violence is first, there is possible
violence as the ruling party may use intimidating tactics to shore up
the votes while similar intimidation could be applied to deter large
turn-out of electorate in the opposition strongholds."
Verjee cautioned INEC and security agencies to strictly adhere to the
constitutional responsibilities devoid of bias, partisanship and undue
influence.
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